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Abubakar Audu  Won the Governorship Election Before he Died

By Prof R. A.  Ipinyomi,  University of Ilorin, Nigeria

I was at St Peter Primary school Felele Lokoja for the governorship  election that held across Kogi State on Saturday November 21, 2015.  It was very peaceful and orderly and less emotional. I already expressed my concern on many issues and posted them on my facebook. In particular I didn’t like the seemingly low turn out, I didn’t like it that only one polling unit was allocated to Felele a radius of about 4 km. In addition it was an idle day for most business men and women, created by Nigeria government for Kogites. Other observations included the obvious fact that many of the few voters couldn’t choose between the two Igala candidates. Eventually the election was declared inconclusive by INEC officials.

By Sunday morning, November 22, 2015 the news of the election results became no more news media guessing as the INEC returning officers said our efforts to choose between  the ruling party PDP and it’s main challenger the party of Prince Abubakar Audu APC had not been enough. An inconclusive result was returned. Prince Abubakar Audu had defeated the incumbent PDP governor but not enough in their view and the view of the law. Election was not held in some 91 polling units which may bring up close to 50,000 votes whereas APC of Audu only scored about 41,000 votes more than PDP. As if that news was not enough bad news for that Sunday, the same Prince Abubakar Audu was reported to have died early Sunday morning.

The level, type and style  of politicking in Nigeria  has not been able to bring out enough voters. The overall turn out in this occasion was less than 40% of registered voters. I am a Bayesian student who believe and making use of prior information on events like this. Therefore although INEC said that the election was inconclusive but with prior information I am saying that Prince Abubakar Audu already won the election for APC before he died. Let us assume that 50,000 votes are outstanding. But we also know that only about 80% of them would have pvc to leave potential voters to 40,000 only. A turn out of 60% voters will add only about 24,000 votes to be distributed to all parties. APC, even without sympathetic votes likely to honour Prince Abubakar AUDU APC may have 50% of 24,000. We repeat again that INEC is only interested in academic exercise because it has enough evidence to return a winner already.

Nigeria is in a dilemma between performing candidates which they don’t have and individual personalities forcing themselves on helpless societies. The other dilemma is the FG and INEC believing in deployment of force men and women as their own indicator for preparation. They are very wrong because they must have a mandate to encourage voters participation and education. Our constitution is also a dilemma where the President has to choose at least 36 ministerial nominees irrespective of state of economy or number of ministries. INEC has to force a re-run on communities that initially violated several degrees of electoral laws to reach a decision. Some of the offenses reported to have been committed include over voting, disruption of the process,  snatching of materials etc. We shouldn’t bend backward to please a constitution that could not see all the scenarios, rather our lawmakers and politicians should amend their ways and be more tolerant and realistic.

Each politician should henceforth be thirsting for higher performance and living for their people as a

way to climb the hill of politics. We ought not to rest content in the valley of corruption when the summit of the love of the people awaits us. The Igala people of Kogi State profusely wept for the loss of their son, mentor,  leader and their hope. As far as they are concerned they thought that they lost the election not knowing that their son actually had won something big for them. We want Igala people to know that Prince Abubakar Audu reached his mountain’s brow, and bathe their brows in politics. He died when the noise was loudest about him and when he was being celebrated. He won his last election. We recalled that he had always wanted to be governor of his state and contested for the post at each possible occasion  (1993, 1998, 2003, 2007, 2011 and 2015).

Prof R. A.  Ipinyomi


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