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ANALYSIS: What Will Happen If Buhari Wins The Presidential Election?


By Tajudeen Balogun, Head, African Examiner, Nigeria Bureau – As a growing boy, I was quick to be attentive and observant of the political differences and the corresponding infighting among the politicians, friends, families and business associates. Then, the clashes were frightening, confrontational and sometimes bloody. Yet, the dimensions the ongoing – 2015 electioneering campaign is heading are more annoying, dangerous and very disturbing.

My headache (as it has variously been pointed out) with the ruling PDP, its stalwarts, supporters, President Jonathan and his aides as well as the online (sponsored or volunteers) hawks is that they are very good and smart at first throwing jabs at the perceived opponents, yet at the appropriate time, reverse and launch accusations of attack against their opponents, party, its members and their leaders. Not a few Nigerians will assent to the fact that so many needless debates have been previously and recently been thrown up by this (PDP) political fold and as I witnessed in my very early days, Nigerians are today more fiercely entangled with one another, more than ever before, owing to different party affiliation, support and solidarity. I must also confess here that the various social media handles although, make the assessment easier and faster, still, some of the political related messages and posts on them are offensive, ferocious, vicious and anti – peace.

The prevailing situation is so unpleasant and horrible to the extent that many serious minded, independent and objective public commentators/analysts; columnists/writers and journalists, (even certain media titles) have now been forced to open up and joined issues with the ruling party, culminating in accusation of bias, meddling, mudslinging and imbalance criticism.

First, let me establish here that the contradictory mien of the ‘bold’ President Jonathan I saw in Lagos and Abeokuta during his campaigns a fortnight ago, is different from the rather sober President, in some of the Northern States (in particular Sokoto) he has touched in the last one week. The relevance of this in today’s focus will be mentioned simultaneously.

It all started like a one off usual political antics, always played by the typical politicians and their parties. The ruling PDP started the education qualification debate of its major Presidential candidate opponent, General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd); after, it jumped over to the health complication saga and later corruption allegation.

Still, there is another side to the education qualification controversy as the self – imposed Spokesman of the entire PDP Empire and Presidency, Femi Fani – Kayode and his newly found colleague, in the ‘rabble rousing’ job, Ayodele Fayose, the Ekiti State Governor, as both have somewhat turned the biblical “doubting Thomas”, just as they have again rubbished Buhari’s statement of result made available by his secondary school, challenging that it was “forged”. Falsification of result is possible, totally agree with that, but can that be the case on the issue in focus, especially after the contemporaries of the person in question have come up publicly and confirmed they wrote the exam together? Well, anyone that is keen in probing further is free, to any length he wishes. And success wishes to them in the self – seeking adventure.

But may I remind for now, President Jonathan’s Special Adviser on Public Affairs, Dr. Doyin Okupe that Nigerians are still awaiting fulfillment of your promise and the PDP? of digging more into allegation(s) of corruption cases against the main opposition – the APC Presidential candidate as well as make them known to the public? Time is running fast and short as well, for that task to be executed, please.

Be that as it may, why are the orchestrated questions and debates? In particular is the education qualification credentials – available or lacking for a retired Military officer who is contesting for the country’s number one position for the fourth time? Why the questions, the pains and sweat after the major oppositions (composites) fused and presented a candidate to face the incumbent President Jonathan? Are these questions really worthy the salt? Are some of the issues being raised by the PDP ‘family’ have any link to the “issues based” campaigns earnestly demanded and craved for by Nigerians? Why the fear and the anxiety by the PDP family?
Also in addition to issues relating to the strange reactions from the ruling party, is the call for postponement of elections on account of short supply of the PVCs. I ask the open minded Nigerians, is this not one of the issues raised by the PDP main opposition, the APC, some months ago, but without any serious attention by nobody and from any relevant authority? For sure, the ruling house latest call for shift in the polls at this time is not only confusing and incomprehensible but largely gives room for suspicion. This is aside the alleged military takeover threat by one of Dr. Okupe errant ‘boys’ over or a week ago if the opposition candidate wins. Why these late frightening and unpleasant developments? Given the dimension of campaigns and level of daily support (for or against) to the two major parties and their candidates, I for one won’t be taken by surprise if some other trivialities are sponsored and brought up.
If I assume that the ruling party is jittery sequel to perceived victory to its main opposition candidate, let me honestly state clearly that such fear and ‘fever’ is hypocritical and more than belated. I as a person, have the moral right to throw this accusation as I belong to the millions of other Nigerians who have been calling on the PDP and President Jonathan to be more sensitive and responsive to the plight and agonies and complaints of the people. President Jonathan, you were told and warned repeatedly that your body languages and utterances on issues relating to insurgency and corruption as well as the needed transparency on some national, economic and social issues were discouraging and would in the end and eventually run against you.

Three readily examples I will provide. Recall your reactions as well as your party, to the plight of Chibok girls, their families; the Boni Yadi and Potiskum killings. Remember your party’s events that were staged side by side with these sad and terrific occasions. Kindly take your mind back to all unresolved corruption cases recorded against your government; unfulfilled power promises despite many expenses and your administration paradoxical persistent claim of running the most prosperous economy in Africa.

Mr. President, you have been consistently told to have been unnecessarily carried away by personal “politically” ambition at the expense of the national’s. To all of these concerns, neither you, nor your party or aides paid serious attention, instead, the reply from you, your people were all sort of attacks and outbursts. What goes around comes around so the saying goes.

Now President Jonathan, if it happens you lose this election, you will have to take and must take heart. My communication is to you and you alone, with the expectation that you pass the messages down to your party, the members and followers. If it happens you are defeated only in a free and credible election, you must be faced with the reality that it is nothing, but a pay back to you and your party for disappointing Nigerians on various key issues in the last six and sixteen years respectively.

The bitter truth (as previously said) which you must confront yourself with, is that, this country and the people have suffered a great deal and have (people) determined to reject further pains through votes against your party.

Believe, if you lose this election, it will open another record in the Nigeria political history, (incumbent loss) but most importantly, will entrench the message that good governance does not place for “neglect, deceit and corruption” in whatever form. Not only to you and your ruling house, but to whichever party that is voted into power. That work by any political office leader in power begins far from when he is finally ushered into the hot seat.
Therefore, to those of your allies who are busy acting the ‘written’ scripts – threatening and scheming evils, may I ask what will happen if General Buhari, your major opponent is voted into power? Nothing definitely, untoward will happen in Nigeria. Those who are sounding the drums of war should be told by you, Mr. President that, the country is beyond individual and a particular party. Interestingly, you and your party and supporters have preached this, time without count only that, the say needs to be in action.
If Buhari wins this election, Nigerian will not scatter, the Igbos, Hausas, Yorubas, Ijaws, Urohobo, Ibibios, Igbiras and other tribal extractions in the country will not die and no one will count any loss. If the victory goes the way of Buhari in a generally applauded credible poll, heaven will not fall and Nigeria will remain one, single, peaceful and habitable entity.

Yet, President Jonathan, if you win either, in a free, fair and credible poll (generally adjudged to be so), Nigeria will match forward and struggle to attain truly an enviable position among the comity of nation. I repeat, Nigeria will not cease to exist if you win a credible election in February.

Mr. President and the PDP, in case you win this poll, that will be another rare and golden opportunity for you and your party to correct many previous wrongs and blunders committed in over a decade.
However, let me advise you and your campaign team especially those in charge of your disdainful and frivolous personality attack against your arch rival, that their misgivings are doing more disservice to your person, your office and your party. Unfortunately, some of the very bad and extreme politics they are playing have continued to ditch you and your party, but running to plus and all round sympathy for your number one and the only strong opponent. I don’t know if you believe this. But listen to this if you care; an ex international Nigerian football star (may be from South East or South South) recently posted in one of the social media that If your opponent presented mere PHCN pay bill, his vote would go to him. He added the worrisome political scenes in the country have degenerated to that level.
For the main opposition, with respect to attack against your major opponent rally, I urge you to make a public declaration that if anyone attempts to, or unleashes any unexpected assault on your opponent in any part of the country in your name, such should not only be arrested, but be prosecuted and be punished without any delay. This is a must measure for you to come out clean in the reported or planned violent attacks on fellow politicians. Of course, this should not be too much for the ruling house to achieve. I reserve my comment on who and which party started the nonsense in Port Harcout, Rivers State, before the counter in Jos, Plateau State; Port Harcourt again, then the ‘area boy’ and wicked death wish advert and unfortunate embarrassment to the President and his campaign train in Katsina and Bauchi this week.

Finally, I wish to repeat that the wish of enemies of Nigeria that if either, Buhari or you win in a popularly acknowledged free and fair election will never come to past. The country will not break, rather, will survive and thrive. President Jonathan, my final messages to you is that if you truly lose this election, you have nothing personally to lose. After all, you have led your party and the country in the last six years, with the humble achievement your capacity can deliver. Remember, no one can contest the fact that you have once led the country and “after office official and otherwise” privileges and benefits are there for you to enjoy. President Jonathan, if the result goes against your expectation, be consoled and learn the lessons that leadership position is a trust; also that it is transient and that the only condition that will make you to be relevant and popular among the people is only when you truly and persistently make them the cornerstone of your policies, developments and dispositions. Please accept the rampaging political revolution and the looming political ‘upstage’ in the country. Kindly admonish your members, party and followers in the same regard. I wish Nigeria well!

E – Mail: tjaysuccess10@gmail.com; Facebook: Tajudeen Balogun

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